American chip "guardrail" seriously interferes with the global industrial chain

On September 6, the US Department of Commerce released the implementation strategy of the chip part of the 2022 Chip and Technology Act. U.S. Commerce Secretary Raymond said that the United States would set up a "barrier" in the semiconductor field, and U.S. chip enterprises receiving government funding could not make new high-tech investments in China or other "worrisome countries" for at least 10 years. The US side has completely abandoned the principle of fair competition, at the expense of politicizing, instrumentalizing and weaponizing science and technology and economic and trade issues, wantonly breaking the rules of international trade and causing serious interference to the global semiconductor supply chain.

The US side forcibly "built a wall" in the field of science and technology, and artificially promoted the "decoupling" of industries, which went against the trend of deep integration of the global economy. The chip industry is highly globalized, requiring division of labor and cooperation among countries. The formation and development of the global chip industry chain supply chain is the result of the joint action of market rules and enterprise choices. According to industry statistics, the production of some advanced chips includes thousands of processes, which requires more than 70 cross-border cooperation. Compulsory industrial transfer or "decoupling" will inevitably lead to chaos in the global division of labor. The United States, ignoring the law of optimal allocation of factors, attempts to use its own advantages to suppress the development of emerging markets and other countries, and undermines the efficient collaborative layout of the existing chip industry. This is a typical scientific and technological hegemonism, which damages the common interests of the world.

The US side is intent on hindering the development of other countries' semiconductor industry, but it does not know that the world economy is a closely linked whole, and any action that violates the economic laws will eventually hurt itself.

For the US government, the so-called "chip bill" will not only help solve old problems, but also create new contradictions. The Congressional Budget Office previously estimated that the spending of the bill plus the industrial tax credit would increase the fiscal deficit by 79 billion dollars. Some budget supervision agencies said that this would continue to push up inflation and drag down economic growth.

For American enterprises, this subsidy policy that emphasizes exclusivity does more harm than good. Boston Consulting estimates that if the United States completely prohibits semiconductor enterprises from selling products to Chinese customers, American semiconductor enterprises will lose 18% of the global market share. Compared with the output value and profits of hundreds of billions of dollars in the global chip market, the US government's subsidy of more than 50 billion dollars is not attractive. The "decoupling" of many American enterprises and the Chinese market, which is conducive to the optimal allocation of resources, is bound to seriously harm their own interests. Not long ago, the White Paper of American Enterprises in China released by the American Chamber of Commerce in China showed that more than two-thirds of the surveyed enterprises believed that China was still their top three investment markets in the world; 83% of the respondents said that they did not consider transferring production or procurement outside China.

In the long run, international enterprises will have to adjust their layout in order to maintain their market share, and the final result may be a trend of "de Americanization" of the global industrial chain. The United States has indiscriminately imposed unilateral sanctions and engaged in "technology blockade" and "technology decoupling" against other countries, which will also make other countries more alert and urge them to accelerate the realization of self-reliance in science and technology. Attempts to block the way of others will only block their own way in the end.


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